Hobbyist/Statistical Forecaster

7 days ago

Bengaluru, Karnataka, India Mercor Full time US$ 5,600 - US$ 8,400 per year

1. Role Overview

Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. We're seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems.

2. Key Responsibilities

  • Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains

  • Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs

  • Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions

  • Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers

  • Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design

3. Ideal Qualifications

  • Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle)

  • High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record

  • Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks

  • Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing

  • Self-driven and intellectually curious

4. More About the Opportunity

  • Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule

  • Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

  • $105–140/hour for U.S.-based applicants

  • You'll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

  • Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started

  • You'll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast

  • We'll follow up within a few days with next steps

7. About Mercor

  • Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations

  • Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey

  • Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI

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