Hobbyist/Statistical Forecaster

7 days ago

Bengaluru, India Mercor Full time

1. Role Overview Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. We’re seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems. 2. Key Responsibilities Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design 3. Ideal Qualifications Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle) High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing Self-driven and intellectually curious 4. More About the Opportunity Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week 5. Compensation & Contract Terms $105–140/hour for U.S.-based applicants You’ll be classified as an independent contractor 6. Application Process Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started You’ll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps 7. About Mercor Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D’Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI

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    1 day ago

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    1. Role Overview Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. We're seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This...

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