Forecasting Analyst Leader

This is a vital position within our organization, overseeing the forecasting team for Sector IBP-Forecasting Markets. The team generates a sound driver-based forecast as the starting point for the demand planning process.

The forecasting analysts work closely with demand planners to ensure the forecast meets business needs and collaborate with data scientists to continuously improve the forecasting engine and data accuracy.

The scope of this role encompasses all bus sector forecasting analysts and has a dotted line reporting relationship with the global IBP forecasting excellence lead and a solid line with the global GCC forecasting lead.

This is a key role in IBP as driver-based forecasting and PFE are essential components to enable the one plan in the IBP/DP process.

Responsibilities:

1. Critical role in ownership, execution, and improvement of the driver-based forecast in IBP or PFE forecasting markets
2. Lead and coordinate the team of forecasting analysts working for sector BUs
3. Main point of contact for sector and global IBP/S&T teams and support forecasting analyst by BU on their BU stakeholder management
4. Main point of contact to coordinate and prioritize improvements to the PFE with data science global teams working on the sustain and continuous improvement of the BU demand planning leads and data scientist working for that specific BU
5. Lead and ensure that the forecasting analyst perform their process and tasks in the short-term, mid-term forecasting models and all the required demand streams in the BU:

• Ensure all demand drivers are being captured in the driver-based forecast
• Reconcile data inputs to confirm that all volume driver data is complete and there are no gaps
• Ensure all the master data needed to activate, deactivate, substitute DFUs in the demand planning systems and all associated lifecycles management activities at the different levels of the hierarchy are consistently executed. Manage the overall/massive master data management.
• Ensure history corrections, outliers corrections, and realignments needed to run the models are executed properly and manage events that apply to all BU and history realignments
• Ensure models run correctly and the output is complete and consistent
• Perform small adjustments in the forecasting engine parameters/data inputs to capture demand trends or patterns that are not well reflected based on own findings or feedback from the demand planners
• Measure and report forecasting KPIs
• Drive overall forecasting continuous improvements and root cause analysis with the demand planners and perform the analysis on the modeling. Identify improvement areas and recommended actions. Collaborate with demand planners and data scientists to define and implement an improvement backlog on the models
• Support data science in the experimentation, test, and evaluation of the improvements and its validation with the demand planners before its implementation
• Coordinate sector forecast accuracy reporting, demand, and forecast performance analysis and continuous improvement plan across sector, defining the priorities across markets based on overall impact to the business
• Drive segmentation calculations and review and validate with the demand planners for its implementation
• Leverage and share best practice which will impact on the wider PepsiCo ecosystem ensuring the best for PepsiCo and therefore enabling its better, stronger, and faster ambitions
• Support forecasting process and tool improvement initiatives

Requirements:

• Holder of both a bachelor's and master's degree (preferably with studies in business administration, engineering, supply chain, finance). Having an MBA is a plus
• Experience in generating accurate demand statistical forecast and in advanced forecasting models including machine learning algorithms at fast-moving consumer goods including a collaborative planning, demand sensing, promotions planning, new product introduction planning, demand shaping, and demand scenarios management
• Proficiency in data analysis and insights. Ability to navigate across large amounts of data, understand the gaps, identify exceptions, and extract insights to form conclusions and inform decisions, with strong analytical skills
• High level of understanding on commercial activities and how they drive demand in FMCG and strong understanding of the demand planning and forecasting processes
• Ability to process and resolve complex issues, establish priorities, and action plans
• 10-12 years of overall experience with 8+ years in demand planning or forecasting
• Experience at a middle level in the FMCG industry is a plus
• Experience in managing and organizing teams
• Collaborative and team player
• Strong in both strategic and analytical thinking
• Strong in organizational skills and attention to detail
• Good business acumen with results orientation
• Ability to generate consensus via strong network & collaborations skills
• Fluent in English with local language (for Mus assigned – is a plus)
• Strong understanding of the IBP processes, demand planning, and forecasting
• Comfortable with process discipline and process adherence, but also able to identify and take opportunities to further develop and strengthen the process without compromising the end state